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In 2016, Hillary Clinton went into Election Day leading Donald Trump in the RealClearPolitics poll average in Pennsylvania (+1.9 percentage points), Michigan (+3.4 points), and Wisconsin (+6.5 points). Trump would go on to win all three states by less than 1 percentage point—a polling error that shocked the world.
This time around, Democratic nominee Joe Biden also leads poll averages in Michigan (+8.1 points), Pennsylvania (+5.3 points), and Wisconsin (+4.6 points). But it doesn’t stop there. In all, Biden is leading in seven states Trump won four years ago, including Arizona (+2.4 points), Florida (+1.5 points), Iowa (+0.8 points), and North Carolina (+1.2 points). Trump holds narrow leads in Georgia (0.4 points), Ohio (0.6 points), and Texas (2.6 points).
But what’s the result if the polling … Read the rest